[Oberon] PC Makers Hit Speed Bumps - Oberon opportunity

[Douglas G. Danforth]

Folks,

I hope you don't object to me posting the following article from
the New York Times but it struck me as relevant to 
Oberon/Native/Bluebottle.

The way I see it, sufficient PC speed was passed 2 years ago
for most of us.  The real need is simplicity and reliability.
I can see a real paradigm shift in how software is distributed
and maintained.

(I am currently struggling with HP-UX and Linux using a company
in-house extension of "make" that coordinates the "build"
of an executable (a fairly large executable)for different
unix platforms.  On my slow 50 Mhz HP-UX box to start from 
scratch and "make" the system takes 25 minutes!  It is 
making for only one platform. I calculate that to do
the same "compilation" with Oberon should take 25 seconds!
This does not include the "load time" for Oberon.)

Take a look at the following. Most interesting.
-Doug

September 30, 2002

PC Makers Hit Speed Bumps; Being Faster May Not Matter

By JOHN MARKOFF

    Todd Schreiner, a Chicago business consultant, went to his local Best Buy
recently to check out hot new PC's that could replace his three-year-old
computer. He decided not to buy.

Mr. Schreiner represents an unpleasant new reality for the personal computer
industry. For decades it has relied on the certainty that customers have an
unquenchable desire for speedier new machines. But computers have reached a
point where for the most common home purposes — Web surfing, e-mail and word
processing — they are already more than fast enough to suit a typical home
user's needs.

"I couldn't conceive of a situation with my software applications today where I
need a computer with a 2.4 gigahertz Pentium processor," Mr. Schreiner said,
referring to one of Intel's fastest new chips. So he decided to make do with his
three-year-old Dell PC, with a Pentium III chip only one-fifth as fast, and
instead spent his money on more memory, a new digital camera and a CD-ROM burner
to store his photos.

More than any other time in its 27-year history, the personal computer industry
has found itself in a quandary, having to concoct new reasons to persuade the
world's 500 million PC owners to replace their existing machines. And the
problem goes beyond the computer makers themselves: no new computer generally
means no new copy of Microsoft Windows sold, no upgrades to word processing or
spreadsheet programs.  

Computer and chip manufacturers have long used advances in speed as a central
point to sell new computers. To be sure, such marketing will still appeal to
people who edit video or process complex photographic images, for example, or
make calculations with large masses of data, or play video games on the PC. They
still see big benefits when they upgrade to faster chips for their
processor-intensive tasks. 

But even some of them are having second thoughts. Norman H. Nie, a political
scientist at Stanford who has long thought of himself as a PC power user, was
the co-inventor of a widely used and computer-power-hungry software program
known as the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. For more than three
decades the software has taxed the power of first mainframes, then minicomputers
and finally PC's.

Dr. Nie has always acquired new, more powerful computers as they became
available. But he was stunned not long ago to discover that his faster new
computer did not improve the speed of his software. He predicted that for many
people, the upgrade cycle might be ending. 

"We're beginning to see a time where — except for the third world — the
replacement cycle for computers looks like Detroit," where the desire for a new
car every year yielded to a slower turnover, he said.

That new attitude is shown clearly in a recent national opinion survey by
Odyssey Ventures, a San Francisco market research firm. Among households with
PC's, the intention to buy a new computer in the next six months has fallen to
just 11 percent from 21 percent in early 2000 and the lowest level in five
years. And half of PC owners now have home computers that are at least two years
old — more than at any time since 1994, when Odyssey began keeping track. The
pace of upgrades is crucial because, according to the Gartner market research
organization, they account for 80 to 85 percent of new computer sales.

"We've come to a plateau," said Nicholas Donatiello Jr., the chief executive of
Odyssey, "What we're seeing is there are other digital needs in the home, and
people may be spending money around the TV rather than the PC."

The computer industry's boosters insist that growth has leveled off before and
that slumps have been only temporary. Each time the PC business has appeared to
run out of steam in the past it has been revived by an burst of software
creativity — from the spreadsheet to video games to the Internet — that has
attracted millions of first-time buyers followed by successive waves of
upgraders.

The cycle has repeated itself so regularly over time that Intel, the company
that pioneered the microprocessor chip that made the PC possible, has a name for
the process: "the digital spiral." At regular intervals, driven by the
industrial process known as Moore's Law, computers increase in power as new
hardware emerges. And like clockwork, software is developed to take advantage of
the new power. 

"Is there another spin of the software spiral in front of us to drive growth?"
asked Paul S. Otellini, Intel's president and chief operating officer. "I
believe so." But so far, innovative new software to spur big new sales has not
materialized.

The industry's slowing growth comes at a time when its rate of technology
advancement has never been faster. At the end of 1999, most personal computers
being sold were based on 500 megahertz to 600 megahertz Intel Pentium III chips.
By next fall — three years later — the typical performance will have shot up
four times, on average, to above 2 gigahertz, according to industry analysts.

The PC industry continues to hold out hope that a variety of new applications —
ranging from increasingly complex video games to home video editing and new
needs that will arise if the high-speed Internet finally takes hold — will come
along and start a new cycle of growth.

But new computing markets appear increasingly to be moving away from the desktop
PC. And many of the new applications that have held out hope for a new round of
growth are now appearing as cheaper, specialized computer products.

"Techno-lust has gone elsewhere," said Richard A. Shaffer, publisher of the
ComputerLetter, a newsletter from Technologic Partners that covers the
technology business.

For example, video game players are being aggressively courted by seductive
alternatives to the PC — most recently, from none other than Intel and
Microsoft. The two companies that pioneered the personal computer have now come
together to offer a powerful special purpose alternative, the Xbox game system,
priced at 10 to 20 percent of the cost of a desktop PC. Other PC applications
such as Web browsing and e-mail may also be increasingly offered in less
expensive, wireless consumer packages.

In fact, many others in the industry think it is possible that the next digital
cycle, when it repeats itself, may not happen on desktop PC's but in some new
device that looks nothing like a computer today.

The transition away from the desktop PC is most apparent in the collapsing
growth rate of the industry, which had for more than a decade been accustomed to
double-digit expansion of sales each year. That bubble burst along with the
dot-com collapse in 2001. 

Amid the prolonged general economic downturn, sales of PC's in the United States
show no signs of reviving soon. Gartner estimates that the industry's sales
shrank last year by almost 5 percent after growing by 10 percent to 27 percent
annually since 1990. This year promises to be just as bleak.

Nevertheless, Gartner analysts estimate that one billion personal computers will
be sold in the next six years. At the same time, the market researchers
acknowledge that their projected 9 percent annual growth rate will in the future
be largely based on continued expansion of sales in the developing world.

The forecast for the United States remains cloudy, and signs of consolidation in
the PC industry are everywhere. Earlier this year, for example, Hewlett-Packard
and Compaq Computer, the top makers of personal computers behind No. 1 Dell
Computer, merged largely in response to the slowing growth of the industry.

So far the response of the personal computer industry to its worst decline in
history has largely been one of denial. 

"People are walking around like members of the cargo cult after World War II,"
said Mark Resch, a partner at Onomy Labs, a Palo Alto, Calif., technology
consulting firm. "They're just hoping the planes come back." 

But some in the computing industry believe that the planes will never come back,
at least in desktop computing. 

"The world is being turned upside down and that is not a happy thing for most PC
companies," said David R. Ditzel, the founder and chief technology officer of
Transmeta, a maker of microprocessors for portable computers. "Things are going
to be tough for the traditional PC guys because they won't go back to their 20
percent growth rates." 

Even personal computer industry veterans acknowledge the paucity of new ideas
that currently troubles the computer industry. 

"As long as new PC's are just faster, cheaper, better than old PC's you're going
to get slow growth," said Robert Frankston, a co-inventor of the computer
spreadsheet application.

Intel, as might be expected, sees the world in a different light. Although Mr.
Otellini acknowledges that many applications do not benefit from greater speed —
a 1.5 gigahertz Pentium 4 chip will play a DVD movie with no less fidelity than
a 2.5 gigahertz chip — he points to the gains in applications like video
editing, which will continue to improve significantly with each new generation
of faster chips. 

He also says there are new categories of software that will continue to drive
growth in the existing personal computer market: technologies like voice
recognition, more sophisticated search tools, wireless networking and computer
security.

But Mr. Otellini acknowledged that most of the incremental growth in the
personal computer market since 2000 is already coming from what he calls
"emerging markets" — developing countries where there are now few computers. 

"We believe that 50 percent of all the incremental units sold in the next five
years will come from these markets," he said. There are now about 500 million
personal computers in the world, he said, and with the help of the emerging
markets the industry, over a long period, could still expect to see double-digit
growth outside the industrial world. 

Nevertheless, Intel and companies that depend on it, like Microsoft, have begun
adjusting their strategies for a post-PC world.

Several years ago Microsoft changed the company mission statement to drop the
term personal computer, instead asserting that the company's mission was:
"Empowering people through great software — any time, any place and on any
device."

At the same time, Microsoft has begun to introduce a variety of consumer
electronics products that could lessen the demand for PC's — including the Xbox
game machine, a combination personal digital assistant and cellphone, and a
TV-oriented Windows Media Server.

For their part Microsoft executives insist that the new consumer computing
devices will not speed the demise of the PC.

"We don't agree with the statement the PC is dead," said Greg Sullivan, the lead
product manager of the Windows XP operating system. 

Still, hints of such a shift abound. In the midst of a general computing and
chip-making downturn, ARM Holdings, a British company that is the world's
largest designer of microprocessors for consumer devices like cellphones and
personal digital assistants, is experiencing record growth. 

ARM chips are designed for the new world of computing away from the desktop PC.
This year, there are 1.3 billion ARM microprocessors in cellphones, personal
digital assistants and other consumer devices — for the first time exceeding the
one billion personal computers that have been produced.

"There is tremendous growth in all the little things that help life," said John
Rayfield, an ARM vice president based in Los Gatos, Calif. "Centralizing them
all in one large computer makes no sense."


        Copyright The New York Times Company